Many projects take place on or near land that was used for crops or grazing until the project started. Leakage refers to when agricultural production is shifted elsewhere as a result of the project, leading to forest clearing for new agricultural land. Leakage can be a major source of emissions and impact credit integrity if not properly addressed.
We combine data on the likelihood of commodity-driven deforestation with data on the carbon storage potential of forests within the same jurisdiction for each crop previously grown in the project and assign a leakage risk score, contextualized by domestic and international leakage risk for the same crop.