Assessing the baseline

Status Quo: In forest carbon markets, a baseline is a business-as-usual scenario used to estimate expected emissions without the incentive of carbon financing. Today, credit issuance relies on historical data and a complex set of subjective factors to set baselines.

Pachama’s Approach: Using machine learning models, we match each satellite pixel in a project to a ‘control’ pixel outside the project with similar attributes. We then use satellite data to observe forest loss in the control pixels compared to the pixels in the project area.

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